2010 Shortstop Overview
Shortstop Overview
Underrated
Jose Reyes (Mets) - I have as little faith in the Mets training staff as anyone, but Reyes' two leg injuries are over and done with. The 26-year-old is still a top-five talent, and it has to be noted that he played in 161, 153, 160 and 159 games in the four seasons going into 2010. Maybe he's not as good of a bet in steals as usual -- I'm projecting him to finish with 44 -- but there's no way he should be slipping out of the second round in mixed-league drafts. He's simply too much of a threat in four categories, and he may drive in 70+ runs if he bats third for any length of time.
Elvis Andrus (Rangers) - If not Reyes, then I expect Andrus to lead all shortstops in steals during his sophomore season. He was an outstanding 33-for-39 as a rookie, and he did more running as the year went on. I don't necessarily see a big breakthrough with the bat in store for his age-21 season -- I have him going from .267/.329/.373 with six homers to .274/.335/.388 with eight homers -- but the 50-steal potential makes the No. 7 shortstop on my board and No. 6 ahead of Derek Jeter in 4x4 leagues. If he can move up from ninth to first or second in the Texas lineup at some point, he just might crack the top five.
Yunel Escobar (Braves) - The only thing that concerns me about Escobar is that he figures to start the season batting sixth behind the slow Troy Glaus and the slower Brian McCann. It's not a situation that would result in a lot of runs scored or RBI. Escobar, though, should get moved back up if he hits like he did last year. He's proving to be a legitimate .300 hitter, he keeps adding to his homer total and he's walked just about as frequently as he's struck out the last two years. Unlike the rest of the top 10 shortstops, he'll be useless when it comes to steals. Still, he should be good for 15 homers and he's a better bet in average than everyone other than Hanley Ramirez and maybe Jeter.
Overrated
Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies) - Tulowitzki was getting dropped in some mixed leagues a couple of months into last season. Now he'll be the second shortstop taken in many leagues this year. I have him fourth, up from seventh last year. Tulo was the National League's second-best player from June on last year, but I doubt he'll attempt 31 steals again and I also don't see him matching his 2009 total of 32 homers. Going into last season, 33 percent of Tulo's career extra-base hits were homers. Last year, it was 48 percent. The league as a whole was at 32 percent, and I'd expect Tulo to fall in closer to the norm this year. I have him at 23 homers, along with 31 doubles and five triples.
Jason Bartlett (Rays) - Bartlett's age-29 season will almost certainly go down as his career year. He set new personal bests in every category of note, and he hit more homers (14) than he did in his previous career 1,533 at-bats as a major leaguer (11). I could see Bartlett coming close to 30 steals and 90 runs scored again, but he should be in for significant declines in every other category, particularly batting average. I rank him as the No. 11 shortstop.
Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks) - It seems like most are still treating Drew as a top-10 shortstop, even though he hit just .261 with 12 homers and five steals last year. I don't doubt that Drew is capable of hitting .300 with 20-25 homers; he should have at least a couple of more seasons like that before he's done. However, he's not in a great situation for runs scored and RBI, he's not a basestealer and he's still something of an injury risk, though he did play 150 games in 2007 and 152 in 2008 before being limited to 135 last season. While the upside is there, I place him 13th at shortstop.
Sleepers
Erick Aybar (Angels) - Last year's .312 average will be tough to match, but Aybar should improve in every other category. The Angels are likely to use him out of the leadoff spot, making him a candidate to score 90-100 runs, and there is the chance that he'll break through as a 30-steal guy, though his technique still needs some work. My projection calls for a .293 average and 22 steals, up from 14 last year. That gives him a slight edge over Bartlett and Drew in the rankings.
Yuniesky Betancourt (Royals) - While Betancourt is the butt of jokes for good reason, he shouldn't be looked at as just another Jack Wilson or Adam Everett as a fantasy shortstop. He hit .286 with eight homers and seven steals per season in the three years prior to his horrid 2009, and this is just his age-28 season. I don't know that he'll ever bounce back defensively, but the Royals are committed to him and the odds are good that he'll get 500 at-bats this season. He may well provide $5-$7 in value for a $1-$2 investment in AL-only leagues.
Julio Lugo (Cardinals) - Shortstop Brendan Ryan just had wrist surgery, second baseman Skip Schumaker can't hit lefties and third baseman David Freese still hasn't proven anything at the major league level, so Lugo isn't lacking for opportunities. He hit a very solid .277/.351/.432 with six steals in 148 at-bats after joining the Cardinals last season. At the very least, he should find his way into the starting lineup against lefties, and he might be asked to take over at third if Freese falters.
Other thoughts
- I just don't see much in the way of young sleepers at shortstop. Alcides Escobar is my No. 15 shortstop, but I imagine he's right about there in everyone's rankings. I'm not big on Everth Cabrera. The possibility exists that he'll steal 40-50 bases, but I don't see him being of any use elsewhere and it wouldn't surprise me to see him head back to the minors at some point. Ian Desmond will be a sleeper if he breaks camp with the Nationals, but odds are that they'll go with Cristian Guzman at shortstop initially.
Shortstop Overview
Underrated
Jose Reyes (Mets) - I have as little faith in the Mets training staff as anyone, but Reyes' two leg injuries are over and done with. The 26-year-old is still a top-five talent, and it has to be noted that he played in 161, 153, 160 and 159 games in the four seasons going into 2010. Maybe he's not as good of a bet in steals as usual -- I'm projecting him to finish with 44 -- but there's no way he should be slipping out of the second round in mixed-league drafts. He's simply too much of a threat in four categories, and he may drive in 70+ runs if he bats third for any length of time.
Elvis Andrus (Rangers) - If not Reyes, then I expect Andrus to lead all shortstops in steals during his sophomore season. He was an outstanding 33-for-39 as a rookie, and he did more running as the year went on. I don't necessarily see a big breakthrough with the bat in store for his age-21 season -- I have him going from .267/.329/.373 with six homers to .274/.335/.388 with eight homers -- but the 50-steal potential makes the No. 7 shortstop on my board and No. 6 ahead of Derek Jeter in 4x4 leagues. If he can move up from ninth to first or second in the Texas lineup at some point, he just might crack the top five.
Yunel Escobar (Braves) - The only thing that concerns me about Escobar is that he figures to start the season batting sixth behind the slow Troy Glaus and the slower Brian McCann. It's not a situation that would result in a lot of runs scored or RBI. Escobar, though, should get moved back up if he hits like he did last year. He's proving to be a legitimate .300 hitter, he keeps adding to his homer total and he's walked just about as frequently as he's struck out the last two years. Unlike the rest of the top 10 shortstops, he'll be useless when it comes to steals. Still, he should be good for 15 homers and he's a better bet in average than everyone other than Hanley Ramirez and maybe Jeter.
Overrated
Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies) - Tulowitzki was getting dropped in some mixed leagues a couple of months into last season. Now he'll be the second shortstop taken in many leagues this year. I have him fourth, up from seventh last year. Tulo was the National League's second-best player from June on last year, but I doubt he'll attempt 31 steals again and I also don't see him matching his 2009 total of 32 homers. Going into last season, 33 percent of Tulo's career extra-base hits were homers. Last year, it was 48 percent. The league as a whole was at 32 percent, and I'd expect Tulo to fall in closer to the norm this year. I have him at 23 homers, along with 31 doubles and five triples.
Jason Bartlett (Rays) - Bartlett's age-29 season will almost certainly go down as his career year. He set new personal bests in every category of note, and he hit more homers (14) than he did in his previous career 1,533 at-bats as a major leaguer (11). I could see Bartlett coming close to 30 steals and 90 runs scored again, but he should be in for significant declines in every other category, particularly batting average. I rank him as the No. 11 shortstop.
Stephen Drew (Diamondbacks) - It seems like most are still treating Drew as a top-10 shortstop, even though he hit just .261 with 12 homers and five steals last year. I don't doubt that Drew is capable of hitting .300 with 20-25 homers; he should have at least a couple of more seasons like that before he's done. However, he's not in a great situation for runs scored and RBI, he's not a basestealer and he's still something of an injury risk, though he did play 150 games in 2007 and 152 in 2008 before being limited to 135 last season. While the upside is there, I place him 13th at shortstop.
Sleepers
Erick Aybar (Angels) - Last year's .312 average will be tough to match, but Aybar should improve in every other category. The Angels are likely to use him out of the leadoff spot, making him a candidate to score 90-100 runs, and there is the chance that he'll break through as a 30-steal guy, though his technique still needs some work. My projection calls for a .293 average and 22 steals, up from 14 last year. That gives him a slight edge over Bartlett and Drew in the rankings.
Yuniesky Betancourt (Royals) - While Betancourt is the butt of jokes for good reason, he shouldn't be looked at as just another Jack Wilson or Adam Everett as a fantasy shortstop. He hit .286 with eight homers and seven steals per season in the three years prior to his horrid 2009, and this is just his age-28 season. I don't know that he'll ever bounce back defensively, but the Royals are committed to him and the odds are good that he'll get 500 at-bats this season. He may well provide $5-$7 in value for a $1-$2 investment in AL-only leagues.
Julio Lugo (Cardinals) - Shortstop Brendan Ryan just had wrist surgery, second baseman Skip Schumaker can't hit lefties and third baseman David Freese still hasn't proven anything at the major league level, so Lugo isn't lacking for opportunities. He hit a very solid .277/.351/.432 with six steals in 148 at-bats after joining the Cardinals last season. At the very least, he should find his way into the starting lineup against lefties, and he might be asked to take over at third if Freese falters.
Other thoughts
- I just don't see much in the way of young sleepers at shortstop. Alcides Escobar is my No. 15 shortstop, but I imagine he's right about there in everyone's rankings. I'm not big on Everth Cabrera. The possibility exists that he'll steal 40-50 bases, but I don't see him being of any use elsewhere and it wouldn't surprise me to see him head back to the minors at some point. Ian Desmond will be a sleeper if he breaks camp with the Nationals, but odds are that they'll go with Cristian Guzman at shortstop initially.
